Field Notes from the Grey Zone

Field Notes from the Grey Zone

Why the “Terrorist Attack Cycle” keeps circulating and what it misses

Intelligence analysts seriously need to start looking at the ground

Oriane Cohen's avatar
Oriane Cohen
Dec 15, 2025
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Today, in the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Sydney, I saw the same graphic circulating again inside intelligence and security circles.

The “terrorist attack cycle.”
A clean loop.

Defining the Terrorist Attack Cycle
Credit : Stratfor

Every time something like this happens, it comes back. And every time it does, it reveals less about the attacker than about… how we try to make sense of v…

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